Highlights: The US Fed appears to be more cautious about the economy but remains in tightening mode, with a further two rate hikes expected in 2019. There are signs of slowing momentum in the US economy but fundamentals remain relatively robust, especially in the labour market. The property market has dominated the headlines in Australia,…

14 December 2018 Bob Cunneen, Senior Economist and Portfolio Specialist US economic growth vs yield curve Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St Louis   Investors have become alarmed that the US yield curve indicates that a recession is coming. The ‘yield curve’ is the gap between long-term and short-term interest rates (red line). Currently the US…

Which key events have been driving markets? Watch this video of Senior Economist Bob Cunneen in discussion with Portfolio Specialist, Sinead Rafferty.

Highlights: The US economy is likely to face headwinds from the lagged effects of interest rate tightening and fading fiscal stimulus, as well as a stronger US dollar if a tightening Fed policy remains. A trade war détente was reached between China and the US at the recent G20 meeting in Argentina, but trade issues…

5 December 2018 Bob Cunneen, Senior Economist and Portfolio Specialist   Copper VS PMI* survey Sources: Markit and London Metal Exchange *PMI – Purchasing Managers’ Index A truce appears to have been declared in the current US-China trade war. US President Trump and Chinese President Jinping have agreed to delay further tariff changes for another 90…

21 November 2018 Bob Cunneen, Senior Economist and Portfolio Specialist   Bitcoin vs Tulip prices Sources:  Reuters, Datastream. McClure.J.E and Thomas D.E (2017), Financial History Review   Chart update: In January 2018 we plotted Bitcoin’s price rise (black line) and posed the question “Is Bitcoin the new tulip mania?” Over the past year, Bitcoin has…

15 November 2018 Bob Cunneen, Senior Economist and Portfolio Specialist   Australian spare capacity vs Wages   *Spare Capacity measure – Unemployment rate less 5% full employment NAIRU (non-accelerating inflation rate of unemployment) inverted Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics. Australia’s nominal wages growth has been struggling over recent years (blue line). This slow and low wages…

Highlights: US economic growth moderated in the September quarter but is underpinned by strong consumer spending growth. The IMF recently downgraded its forecast for global economic growth, partly reflecting the US-China trade war. In Australia, business conditions remain relatively robust while labour market conditions continue to show signs of underlying strength. Chinese GDP grew by…

At its meeting today, the Board decided to leave the cash rate unchanged at 1.50 per cent. The global economic expansion is continuing. A number of advanced economies are growing at an above-trend rate and unemployment rates are low. Growth in China has slowed a little, with the authorities easing policy while continuing to pay close attention…

6 November 2018 Bob Cunneen, Senior Economist and Portfolio Specialist                                         US interest rates vs wages   Source: Federal Reserve St Louis. American workers are increasingly benefitting from a tighter labour market. Strong demand for labour has given…