14 February 2019 Bob Cunneen, Senior Economist and Portfolio Specialist Source:  NAB Business Survey and Westpac Melbourne Institute (WMI) Consumer Sentiment survey. Confidence is a key indicator for economic growth. Consumer spending, housing construction and business investment can all depend upon confidence. NAB’s Business Survey (blue line) shows that confidence has turned down over recent…

Highlights: Fears of slowing growth momentum in the US and China are creating a sense of urgency for both countries to resolve the trade dispute. The possibility of a further US government shutdown over border control is adding to uncertainty and downside risks to the economy. The Australian residential property market continues to weaken, while…

05 February 2019 Bob Cunneen, Senior Economist and Portfolio Specialist                      US interest rates (Fed funds interest rates) vs Wages (Average hourly earnings)                                                    …

At its meeting today, the Board decided to leave the cash rate unchanged at 1.50 per cent. The global economy grew above trend in 2018, although it slowed in the second half of the year. Unemployment rates in most advanced economies are low. The outlook for global growth remains reasonable, although downside risks have increased. The trade…

Which key events have been driving markets? Watch this video of Senior Economist Bob Cunneen in discussion with Portfolio Specialist, Sinead Rafferty. They discuss: The reasons behind the recent falls in global share markets, and Latest market movements in Australia January Economic Update – Watch Video

Highlights: The US Fed appears to be more cautious about the economy but remains in tightening mode, with a further two rate hikes expected in 2019. There are signs of slowing momentum in the US economy but fundamentals remain relatively robust, especially in the labour market. The property market has dominated the headlines in Australia,…

14 December 2018 Bob Cunneen, Senior Economist and Portfolio Specialist US economic growth vs yield curve Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St Louis   Investors have become alarmed that the US yield curve indicates that a recession is coming. The ‘yield curve’ is the gap between long-term and short-term interest rates (red line). Currently the US…

Which key events have been driving markets? Watch this video of Senior Economist Bob Cunneen in discussion with Portfolio Specialist, Sinead Rafferty.

Highlights: The US economy is likely to face headwinds from the lagged effects of interest rate tightening and fading fiscal stimulus, as well as a stronger US dollar if a tightening Fed policy remains. A trade war détente was reached between China and the US at the recent G20 meeting in Argentina, but trade issues…

5 December 2018 Bob Cunneen, Senior Economist and Portfolio Specialist   Copper VS PMI* survey Sources: Markit and London Metal Exchange *PMI – Purchasing Managers’ Index A truce appears to have been declared in the current US-China trade war. US President Trump and Chinese President Jinping have agreed to delay further tariff changes for another 90…