8 May 2019 Bob Cunneen, Senior Economist and Portfolio Specialist RBA cash interest rate vs leading indicators Source: Reserve Bank of Australia and Datastream. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is under considerable pressure to cut interest rates. This seems extraordinary given that Australia’s cash interest rate stands at a low 1.5% (blue line). However…

At its meeting today, the Board decided to leave the cash rate unchanged at 1.50 per cent. The outlook for the global economy remains reasonable, although the risks are tilted to the downside. Growth in international trade has declined and investment intentions have softened in a number of countries. In China, the authorities have taken steps to…

18 April 2019 Bob Cunneen, Senior Economist and Portfolio Specialist Global Shares Forward Price-to-Earnings Ratio                                                Source: IBES and Datastream. Global share prices have surged back in 2019. The painful final months of…

Highlights: Data from the US has confirmed that the slowdown in growth has continued through early 2019, although March employment and PMI figures have shown some positive signs. The Brexit issue is still creating uncertainty for markets. Prime Minister May will now seek a bipartisan deal to present to the British parliament and EU negotiators….

12 April 2019 Bob Cunneen, Senior Economist and Portfolio Specialist                         Consumer spending vs sentiment Source: Westpac Melbourne Institute, Australian Bureau of Statistics and Datastream. The Australian consumer appears subdued.  The Westpac Melbourne Institute (WMI) measure of consumer sentiment (red line) came in at 100.7…

03 April 2019 Bob Cunneen, Senior Economist and Portfolio Specialist                                Budget balance as a % of nominal GDP Source: Datastream, Australian Federal Budget, Congressional Budget Office.  Australia’s Federal Budget promises to deliver a surplus of $7.1 billion in the next financial…

At its meeting today, the Board decided to leave the cash rate unchanged at 1.50 per cent. The outlook for the global economy remains reasonable, although growth has slowed and downside risks have increased. Growth in international trade has declined and investment intentions have softened in a number of countries. In China, the authorities have taken steps…

22 March 2019 Bob Cunneen, Senior Economist and Portfolio Specialist                           Australia’s employment vs population growth                              Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics. Australia’s labour market has been remarkably positive in…

15 March 2019 Bob Cunneen, Senior Economist and Portfolio Specialist                              China’s production vs iron ore price                              Source: Datastream. China’s recent economic growth performance has been remarkably stable….

Highlights: The US economy is generally performing well, although recent GDP and PMI figures indicate growth is slowing, and February’s payroll numbers disappointed. Much of the bad news coming from China appears to have been priced in, with markets largely unperturbed by the latest downward move in China’s growth target. Markets appeared satisfied with the…