21 November 2018 Bob Cunneen, Senior Economist and Portfolio Specialist   Bitcoin vs Tulip prices Sources:  Reuters, Datastream. McClure.J.E and Thomas D.E (2017), Financial History Review   Chart update: In January 2018 we plotted Bitcoin’s price rise (black line) and posed the question “Is Bitcoin the new tulip mania?” Over the past year, Bitcoin has…

15 November 2018 Bob Cunneen, Senior Economist and Portfolio Specialist   Australian spare capacity vs Wages   *Spare Capacity measure – Unemployment rate less 5% full employment NAIRU (non-accelerating inflation rate of unemployment) inverted Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics. Australia’s nominal wages growth has been struggling over recent years (blue line). This slow and low wages…

Highlights: US economic growth moderated in the September quarter but is underpinned by strong consumer spending growth. The IMF recently downgraded its forecast for global economic growth, partly reflecting the US-China trade war. In Australia, business conditions remain relatively robust while labour market conditions continue to show signs of underlying strength. Chinese GDP grew by…

At its meeting today, the Board decided to leave the cash rate unchanged at 1.50 per cent. The global economic expansion is continuing. A number of advanced economies are growing at an above-trend rate and unemployment rates are low. Growth in China has slowed a little, with the authorities easing policy while continuing to pay close attention…

6 November 2018 Bob Cunneen, Senior Economist and Portfolio Specialist                                         US interest rates vs wages   Source: Federal Reserve St Louis. American workers are increasingly benefitting from a tighter labour market. Strong demand for labour has given…

1 November 2018 Bob Cunneen, Senior Economist and Portfolio Specialist                   Forward Price to Earnings Ratio 1 year   Source: FactSet and Institutional Brokers’ Estimate System (IBES)  Wall Street’s golden run in terms of a rising share market seems to have come to an end in recent weeks….

19 October 2018 Bob Cunneen, Senior Economist and Portfolio Specialist                        Budget balance as percentage of Nominal GDP    Source: Final Budget Outcome 2017-18, ‘Appendix B: Historical Australian Government data’, www.budget.gov.au/2017-18/content/fbo/html/, accessed on 18 October 2018. President Trump made extraordinary remarks over the past week suggesting that…

09 October 2018 Bob Cunneen, Senior Economist and Portfolio Specialist             China’s economic growth vs Reserve requirements Sources: Thomson Reuters.   China’s economy is under pressure. The trade war with the United States has intensified and shows no signs of a ceasefire. Tariffs have now been announced for US$250 billion of…

Highlights: The US economy is set to repeat the robust GDP growth achieved in the June quarter, although the figures may be boosted by short-term effects. The signing of a trade deal between the US, Mexico and Canada has managed to settle some nerves, but trade remains a key issue for investors. For the first…

05 October 2018 Bob Cunneen, Senior Economist and Portfolio Specialist         Australian credit and economic activity Source: Reserve Bank of Australia.   Recent media articles* have suggested that Australia could be facing a ‘credit crunch’. Tighter lending standards for housing appear to be restraining credit availability. If credit has become hard to access,…